Even though I’m not Tweeting as I used to earlier, but I’m reading more Tweets than ever. I consider social media not as my source of news, but more as a gauging tool of what the general public is thinking of, and what’s happening inside their minds. Since the downfall of Mubarak till this day, I’ve been following closely the events in Egypt. At times, I’d want to scream off the top of my lungs and say ‘NO!’ and at other times I just laugh it out in disappointment. However, what has been constant since day one is the fact that nothing in Egypt surprises me at all.
I have an online friend, who from time to time sends me some questions on events in the Middle East. Sometimes he’s asking for predictions, and sometimes explanations. Because I’m a Political Scientist, I tend to support any answer I give with similar historical events. I do some comparison and send through what I believe will happen, or why I believe this is happening. For Egypt, I’ve been striking good predictions thus far.
You see, predictions have to start with assumptions. For example, we have to always assume that businessmen always work to maximize profit, politicians try always to maximize their time in office, and most importantly, the Military always tries to maximize spending. Many others exist in a single society and each is trying to pull the rope towards him, and the most powerful will most likely always succeed.
When the military took a stand against Mubarak, and worked to restore the country two and a half years ago, I predicted that we would be seeing more of the military for many years to come. I based this prediction on Turkey, and elsewhere, because having control of politics and influence towards their own budget is not an easy thing to give up. It would take a lot of retirements and rotations for the military, where personnel remain in their posts for a relatively long time, to hand over power to civilians, who they believe are in a way idealist living things.
Before elections, while the Muslim Brotherhood were still skeptical about whether or not it is the time for them to jump into political action, it was difficult for me to believe that in one way or another the most organized group in Egypt would stand down. Their coming to power was due to two things, because they were structured and organized, and because they do have millions of supporters. I still do remember years ago all those chants in rallies about ‘Islam is the solution.’
The dilemma was not within the ‘Muslim Brotherhood’; they did what any political party in power would do. They identified the gaps where they can fill and thus increase their chances of remaining in power. Whoever said that politics and ethics go hand in hand? The real Dilemma was with the Egyptian military. They gave up power to soon, too early before tightly securing issues related to ‘National Security’, including social stability.
What happened in Egypt is teaching us that you should always listen to Political Scientist vis-à-vis Lawyers or those who worship the law. Reality about National Security always supersedes democracies and legalities. Egypt is a prime example. Yes we all have issues with groups and doctrines that tend to destabilize the region for their own benefit, but truth is said that democracy has its flaws by paving way for groups like the Muslim Brotherhood to implement their isolationist plans.
This is the real world we live in here in the Middle East, and I hear no ‘government’ whether democratic or not, making a big fuss about the Egyptian Military Coup, and I understand.