================================================================
A. DECLINE IS NOT A FREEDOM HOUSE ARTIFACT (V-Dem replication)
================================================================
  Freedom House        within-country -0.288/yr (p 2.8e-06); global mean peak=2005, then 62.8->57.0
  V-Dem Liberal Dem    within-country -0.133/yr (p 0.017); global mean peak=2012, then 40.8->38.0
  V-Dem Electoral Dem  within-country -0.140/yr (p 0.021); global mean peak=2012, then 52.3->49.2

================================================================
B. IS THE SPEED OF DECLINE CONSTANT SINCE 2006?
================================================================

  [Freedom House] quadratic: yc=-0.039 (p0.79), yc^2=-0.0131 (p0.045) -> ACCELERATING (concave down)
    segments  2006-2012: -0.176/yr (p0.13) | 2013-2018: -0.366/yr (p0.0051) | 2019-2025: -0.380/yr (p0.00011)

  [V-Dem LibDem] quadratic: yc=+0.323 (p0.016), yc^2=-0.0253 (p0.00027) -> ACCELERATING (concave down)
    segments  2006-2012: +0.197/yr (p0.04) | 2013-2018: -0.081/yr (p0.49) | 2019-2024: -0.546/yr (p6.4e-05)

================================================================
C. LOCATING THE CHANNEL: expanded two-way FE panel
================================================================

[C1 FH core] DV=FreeScore  N=4925, entities=170, within-R2=0.001
    gdp_growth_l1    +0.0660 (se 0.0359, p 0.066)*
    inflation_l1     +0.0062 (se 0.0196, p 0.752)
    trade_open       +0.0126 (se 0.0205, p 0.539)
    log_gdppc        +0.6743 (se 2.6318, p 0.798)
    log_pop          -4.3065 (se 4.3723, p 0.325)

[C2 FH +unemp] DV=FreeScore  N=4615, entities=162, within-R2=-0.002
    gdp_growth_l1    +0.0576 (se 0.0340, p 0.0901)*
    inflation_l1     +0.0088 (se 0.0208, p 0.673)
    trade_open       -0.0010 (se 0.0183, p 0.957)
    log_gdppc        +0.8267 (se 2.8180, p 0.769)
    log_pop          -5.5998 (se 4.7677, p 0.24)
    unemp_l1         +0.1924 (se 0.1226, p 0.117)

[C3 V-Dem core] DV=libdem  N=4676, entities=159, within-R2=0.015
    gdp_growth_l1    -0.0194 (se 0.0288, p 0.501)
    inflation_l1     +0.0028 (se 0.0130, p 0.83)
    trade_open       -0.0193 (se 0.0176, p 0.274)
    log_gdppc        +0.4370 (se 1.8479, p 0.813)
    log_pop          +2.5365 (se 3.0808, p 0.41)