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PART 1 — IS DEMOCRACY DECLINING? (Freedom House FreeScore 0-100)
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[T1] Global mean score ~ year, 1972-2025 (HAC se):
  slope = +0.3468 pts/yr  (se 0.0756, t 4.59, p 0.0000)

[T2] WITHIN-country trend 2006-2025 (country FE, cluster by country):
  slope = -0.2882 pts/yr (se 0.0614, t -4.69, p 2.77e-06)  N=3892
  => average country lost 5.5 points over 2006-2025.

[T3] Within-country trend by region, 2006-2025 (pts/yr):
  Africa         -0.389/yr (p 0.00375, 54 countries)
  Americas       -0.367/yr (p 0.00739, 35 countries)
  Asia           +0.101/yr (p 0.466, 39 countries)
  Eurasia        -0.502/yr (p 0.0396, 12 countries)
  Europe         -0.304/yr (p 0.00289, 42 countries)
  Middle East    -0.581/yr (p 0.000478, 13 countries)

[T4] Of 193 countries with data both years: 85 declined, 31 improved, 77 unchanged.
     Mean change = -5.48 pts; median +0.00.

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PART 2 — DOES ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE PREDICT DEMOCRACY? (2-way FE)
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[P1 level]  FreeScore ~ 1 + gdp_growth_l1 + log_gdppc + log_pop + EntityEffects + TimeEffects
  N=6347, entities=190, within-R2=0.013
    gdp_growth_l1      +0.0784 (se 0.0363, p 0.0306)**
    log_gdppc          +1.6499 (se 1.8078, p 0.361)
    log_pop            -2.8430 (se 3.2416, p 0.381)

[P2 +trade]  FreeScore ~ 1 + gdp_growth_l1 + log_gdppc + log_pop + trade_open + EntityEffects + TimeEffects
  N=5385, entities=174, within-R2=0.013
    gdp_growth_l1      +0.0536 (se 0.0383, p 0.162)
    log_gdppc          +1.9574 (se 2.4413, p 0.423)
    log_pop            -1.9887 (se 3.8533, p 0.606)
    trade_open         +0.0126 (se 0.0195, p 0.519)

[P3 change]  dFree ~ 1 + gdp_growth_l1 + log_gdppc + EntityEffects + TimeEffects
  N=6347, entities=190, within-R2=0.007
    gdp_growth_l1      -0.0146 (se 0.0171, p 0.396)
    log_gdppc          -0.6312 (se 0.2623, p 0.0161)**

[P4 placebo(+lead)]  FreeScore ~ 1 + gdp_growth_l1 + gdp_growth_lead1 + log_gdppc + log_pop + EntityEffects + TimeEffects
  N=6159, entities=190, within-R2=0.017
    gdp_growth_l1      +0.0829 (se 0.0335, p 0.0134)**
    gdp_growth_lead1   -0.0028 (se 0.0337, p 0.934)
    log_gdppc          +1.8071 (se 1.9142, p 0.345)
    log_pop            -2.5716 (se 3.3547, p 0.443)